Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections: A working paper for REMap 2030

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• The global energy picture is changing rapidly in favor of renewable energy. According to IRENA’s global renewable energy roadmap - REmap 2030 - if the realisable potential of all renewable energy technologies beyond the business as usual are implemented, renewable energy could account for 36% of the global energy mix in 2030. This would be equal to a doubling of the global renewable energy share compared to 2010 levels
• Biomass has an auspicious future. By 2030, biomass could account for 60% of total final renewable energy use and biomass has potential in all sectors.
• Most biomass demand today is its traditional uses for cooking and heating. In 2010, more than 60% of the total global biomass demand of 53 exajoules (EJ) was used in the residential and commercial buildings sectors. Much of this was related to traditional uses of biomass for cooking and heating. Biomass demand in the manufacturing industry (15%), transport (9%) and the power and district heating (8%) sectors accounted for about one-third
• Biomass applications could change over time. Global biomass demand could double to 108 EJ by 2030 if all its potential beyond the business as usual is implemented. Nearly a third of this total would be consumed to produce power and district heat generation. About 30% would be utilised in biofuels production for the transport sector. The remainder would be halved between heating applications in the manufacturing industry and building sectors. Biomass use in combined heat and power (CHP) generation will be key to raise its share in the manufacturing industry and power sectors.
• Estimated global biomass demand, according to REmap 2030, in the United States, China, India, Brazil and Indonesia together account for 56% of the total
• Global biomass supply in 2030 is estimated to range from 97 EJ to 147 EJ per year Approximately 40% of this total would originate from agricultural residues and waste (37-66 EJ) The remaining supply potential is shared between energy crops (33-39 EJ) and forest products, including forest residues (24-43 EJ) The larg - est supply potential exists in Asia and Europe (including Russia) (43-77 EJ)
• International trade of biomass would play an important role in meeting the increasing global demand Trade could account for between 20% and 40% of the total global demand by 2030 Domestic supply costs of biomass is estimated to range from as low as USD 3 for agricultural residues to as high as USD 17 per GJ for energy crops
• There are many challenges to be address in biomass demand and supply, its international trade as well as the substitution of its traditional uses in realising such high growth rates Moreover, with bioenergy demand estimated to double between 2010 and 2030, ensuring the sustainability of biomass will gain even more importance including environmental, economic and societal aspects.
• For a sustainable and affordable bioenergy system , existing national and international initiatives / partnerships as well as energy and resource policies need to be expanded to address the challenges across the biomass use and supply chain
• While biomass represents an important stepping stone in doubling the global renewable energy share, potential of other renewables should be expanded further with policy support to ensure the deployment of a broader portfolio of technologies and reduce dependency on biomass resources.