The Vision Scenario for the European Union 2011 Update for the EU-27 Project

Authors, the Öko-Institut eV, believe the EU could source 80% of transport fuel from biofuels by 2050 (predominantly in the freight sector) while addressing sustainability issues. The Vision Scenario represents a pathway that consistently combines short- and medium-term objectives with long-term objectives. Furthermore it is in line with the greenhouse gas emission budget, which could allow the increase of the global mean temperature to be kept to a level below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The quantitative scenario analysis of the energy system and all greenhouse gas emis-sions sources (except land use, land-use change and forestry) and of different ambitions in energy and climate policy outlines significantly different pathways for future energy and climate policies:

In the Reference Scenario, which is based on recent ambitions in energy climate policies, an emission reduction of 19% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020, 25% by 2030 and 38% by 2050 is achieved. Renewable energies con-tribute 13% of the primary energy supply in 2020, 16% in 2030 and 24% in 2050. The share of power generation from renewable energies in total electricity generation represents 24% in 2020, 29% in 2030 and 46% in 2050. The level of nuclear power production remains at recent levels.

The Vision Scenario is based on a greenhouse gas emission reduction target in accordance with the EU's long-term goal. The total greenhouse gas emission reduction amounts to 35% in 2020, 57% in 2030 and 91% in 2050. Additional measures in land use, land-use change and forestry could enable a 95% emissions reduction. Renewable energies represent a share of 20% in the total primary energy supply in 2020, nearly 40% in 2030 and about 90% in 2050. The power sector undergoes a process of early decarbonisation; the share of re-newable energies in total net power generation is 39% in 2020, 60% in 2030 and 94% in 2050. Nuclear power in the EU is phased out in this scenario by 2040.

To achieve the transition to a zero-carbon economy as outlined in the Vision Scenario three main subjects need to be addressed.

• significant energy efficiency improvements must be achieved in all sectors
• the transition to carbon-free energy sources is necessary in all sectors
• A wide range of other measures is necessary to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions of 90% and more. Industrial processes, waste management, and agriculture must be subject to significant emission reduction efforts.