Progress in Estimates of ILUC with Mirage Model

This report presents the results of work carried out in 2012 - 2013 by the JRC in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) using the economic model MIRAGE. This model was previously used to calculate ILUC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which were included in the Commission policy proposal COM(2012)595.  The results of MIRAGE used in the Commission Impact Assessment and policy proposal (COM(2012) 595) were considered as the best available at that time.

However, changing some of the assumptions as proposed by the JRC, the new results show that:

• ILUC emissions of wheat - ethanol increase by 15% with assumptions on yield increase for EU wheat in line with OECD - FAO projections for 2020, assuming no multiplier related to cropping intensity for wheat production in the EU;
• ILUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% , depending on the crop type , if the definition of the crop category “other oilseeds” becomes more restrictive ( excluding olive area for instance) in the EU;
• ILUC emissions change from -20% (sugar beet) to +30% (soybean), depending on the crop type, if food consumption is maintained constant by excluding switches between food categories and thus changes in overall food quality;
• ILUC emissions increase from 0% to 34% when the EU wheat yield is corrected and the assumption on the expansion of major crops onto other oilseeds (like olive) is changed; the increases are even higher (from 3% to 62%) if food consumption is also fixed (and the three changes are applied simultaneously in the model run).